April 30th 2024 – Updated May 4th 2024 at 6:40 PM EST
Below are the 150th Kentucky Derby post-positions and morning line odds. Post-time is Saturday, May 7th at 6:57PM EST on NBC. Note that Encino has been scratched and Epic Ride (30/1) has taken his place.
A more detailed entry list can be found on Equibase by clicking here: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CD050424USA-EQB.html#DesktopJump12
Here is a link to Brisnet’s Past Performances: Click Here
I think the Kentucky Derby will come down to Fierceness and Catching Freedom for the win if this is a dry, fast track. There are concerns with both of them as Fierceness had a perfect trip in the Florida Derby and those are rare in a 20-horse field. Catching Freedom is a deep closer and those haven’t fared that well either in the Derby. Horses that I like hitting the board: Sierra Leone, Just Steel and Honor Marie.
One horse that will get a lot of betting action is the Japanese horse Forever Young who won the UAE Derby. Just a reminder, the UAE Derby winners haven’t fared that well in the Kentucky Derby. The Derby prep race that has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners is the Florida Derby and that winner was Fierceness.
The weather forecast for today shows that Churchill Downs could be getting a few light showers off and on but it isn’t expected to produce much accumulation. You can monitor the weather here: Derby Weather
Betting Strategies – Updated
Here is what I am going to do with $200. I will be making all win bets. In the far right column is their expected payouts:
FIERCENESS 7/2 $89 $400.50
SIERRA LEONE 9/2 $66 $363.00
CATCHING FREEDOM 8/1 $45 $405.00
What I am trying to do here is doubling my money. I am expecting that I will have to adjust this around post-time where the odds will more than likely shift.
I am also going to make a 50-cent Trifecta bet of:
2/4/17 over 2/4/7/17 over 2/4/6/7/8/15/17/19
Here is a link to the live Kentucky Derby odds: Derby Odds
I will continue to update this clear up until post-time.
Stay tuned!
–Michael
Cox Sportsnet 
Hi Michael,
Good to hear from u again. If Fierceness is near the lead at the qtr pole, it’s probably over.
I like Catching Freedom a lot. He’s the only other horse that checks all the boxes from what I see. Disappointed me in the Risen, and then silly me didn’t stick with him in the LA Derby.
Long shots r Resilience and Society Man. Mystic Dan maybe if it’s wet.
Thx,
Greek
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Greek,
Yes, I am looking at Mystic Dan now that it appears we will be getting showers tomorrow. I think a wet track also moves Sierra Leone into the mix as he has raced twice on muddy or sloppy tracks. Plus Sierra Leone is real consistent. Another one that I am looking at is Dornoch who won the Remsen Stakes on a muddy track and produced a 101 Brisnet Speed Figure.
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Michael,
It should be drier today but I agree, hard to leave SL alone. Just figuring his style will hurt one of these times.
The odds on Fierce will be so low it will be hard to bet straight up.
Straight win on 4. Others I will use are below. Just don’t know how yet. 2, 3, 8, 17, 19.
Be sure to update. You’re usually on it!
Thx,
Greek
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Looks like the track is fast today. I think I may do a boxed exacta 2, 4 and 7,
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Well another surprise win in the Derby but this time in a dry race. I liked Mystik Dan if it was going to be a wet race.
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Hit the trifecta
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Congrats! That was a tough Derby to handicap.
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That it was but very exciting. Honor Marie got beat up and could not run his race. I’m a little surprised there wasn’t an objection and SL dq’d. Glad tho didn’t want relive a nightmare.
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There should have been a Stewards Inquiry for 2nd between Sierra Leone and Forever Young. They took a win away from Maximum Security a few years back but this went without any review?
The 2nd and 3rd finishers make a huge difference when there are hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line in position payouts and parimutuel bets. Shame on Churchill Downs as this makes them seem biased and political.
That being said, Forever Young did come into Sierra Leone’s path & bump him first. There was plenty of bumping going on between these two. However, Tyler Gafflione reached out & touched/pushed Forever Young. That is an interference foul plain and simple.
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Right? I was surprised but happy they didn’t take money out of my hands again.
Hoping u do a Preakness post.
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