2022 Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview

Updated: 11/5/22 at 5:20PM EST

Coming up this Saturday, the 39th running of the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a purse of $6 Million Dollars. As is the case every year, this is the most talented field we will see on dirt in North America as it pits the best dirt horses from all age groups.

Post time is 4:40 PM CST (2:40 PM PST). The race will be televised on NBC with coverage beginning at 2:30 PM CST.

Below are the official entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds.

2022 Breeders’ Cup Classic Starting Field

#1 Taiba (8/1) – The Pennsylvania Derby winner. He finished 12th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Haskell Stakes. He’s got a great trainer/jockey combination in John Sadler and Irad Ortiz Jr who have both won the Breeders Cup Classic. His inside post in this talented field will mean that he will have to get out of the gate well.#

Career: 5 Starts 3-1-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2
Last 3 starts: 12th–>2nd–>1st
Sire: Gun Runner (2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014, 2015, 2016, 2020 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011, 2016 Breeders Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:05.45 (estimated) – 2022 Kentucky Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 – 2022 Pennsylvania Derby

#2 Life Is Good (6/1) – The 2022 Pegasus World Cup winner is riding a three-race win streak. He has excelled at 8 and 9-furlong races. His only start around 10 furlongs was the 2000-meter Dubai World Cup back in March where he finished 4th. This is a great horse that you should put in your exotic bets. But I think the track oddsmaker got his odds right as the third favorite.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 4
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st->1st
Sire: Into Mischief
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2019 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2019 Breeders Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: N/A
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 – 2022 Pegasus World Cup

#3 Happy Saver (30/1) – Another Todd Pletcher trainee. This is the most quality 30-1 that I can remember. He has hit the board in all 12 career starts. His last win was the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup. That highlights his problem as he has usually finished 2nd since that win. In his last start, the Lukas Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs on October 1st, he finished 4th behind race-winner Hot Rod Charlie and runnerup Rich Strike who are also in the Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

Career: 5 Starts 4-0-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 4
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>2nd->4th
Sire: Super Saver
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2019 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2020 Breeders Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.77 – 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 104 – 2022 Whitney Stakes

#4 Flightline (3/5) – The undefeated 3/5 favorite. He may be one of the greatest thoroughbreds of all time. Flightline received a 126 Beyer Speed Figure in the Pacific Classic (shown below) which was one of the top 5 Beyer Speed Figures of all time and the highest for a 1 1/4 mile (10-furlong) race since Andrew Beyer started recording them in the mid-1970s.

Career: 5 Starts 5-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st->1st
Sire: Tapit
Trainer: John Sadler (2018 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Flavian Prat 
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 1:59.28 – 2022 2022 Pacific Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 126 – 2022 Pacific Classic

#5 Hot Rod Charlie (15/1) – The 2021 Pennsylvania Derby winner is coming off a win in the 2022 Lukas Classic Stakes. He is a popular 4-year-old but his best finish in a 1 1/4th mile race was the 2021 Kentucky Derby where he finished 4th.

Career: 18 Starts 5-5-4-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>3rd->1st
Sire: Oxbow
Trainer: Doug O’Neill 
Jockey: Tyler Gafflione 
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:00.29 (estimated) – 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2021 Pennsylvania Derby

#6 Epicenter (6/1) – After 2nd place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, Epicenter won his last two starts (Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes). He is arguably the top 3-year-old in North America.

Career: 10 Starts 6-3-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st->1st
Sire: Not This Time
Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 & 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2018 & 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner)
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:00.72 – 2022 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 112 – 2022 Travers Stakes

#7 Olympiad (10/1) – The Jockey Club Gold Cup winner has never finished below 4th in 12 career starts. His trainer, William Mott, has won two Breeders’ Cup Classics with Cigar in 1995 and Drosselmeyer in 2011.

Career: 12 Starts 8-1-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 1st–>4th->1st
Sire: Speightstown
Trainer: William Mott (1995 & 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.11 – 2022 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 111 – 2022 Stephen Foster Stakes

#8 Rich Strike (20/1) – The 2021 Kentucky Derby winner is, in my opinion, the weakest horse in this field. Rich Strike has yet to win a race in 3 starts in 2022.

Career: 11 Starts 2-1-3-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 6th–>4th->2nd
Sire: Keen Ice
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.60 (estimated) – 2022 Travers Stakes
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 – 2022 Travers Stakes


Who’s my Classic Favorite?

Update

For a horse that produced a 126 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start. I think this is a no-brainer that Flightline is the clear favorite. Can he be beaten? Sure but I think it would be counterproductive and ill-advised to bet big against him. I would key him to win in exotic bets but would also box him in some trifectas just in case the unthinkable happens.

In handicapping this race, I tried to put these horses into two tiers, a top tier and a bottom tier. In my top tier, I have Flightline, Olympiad, Epicenter and Life Is Good. In my bottom tier, I have Taiba, Hot Rod Charlie, Happy Saver and Rich Strike. For trifectas, I like Flightline, Olympiad and Epicenter and I will box them in case there is an upset.

Update: I don’t know what is up with Olympiad’s live odds but at 25-1 currently, I like him even more in my exotic bets. I am making a big win bet on Flightline and just doing small exotic bets with Epicenter and Olympiad mainly.

7 comments

  1. Hi Michael,

    It might be a fight for second, but I’m leaning Olympiad here. He always seems to run a good race.

    Distaff might offer a decent return away from the top two. Good field.

    Hope all is good with you.

    Thx
    Greek

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thanks to you I hit the exacta…! Also hit the Distaff. Decided Malathaat was too good staying at 3-1. And likes the track, even more now! No life changer, but a good day. Hope u stuck to your guns.
    Thx,
    John

    Like

  3. I did very well. I hit a Trifecta that paid out over $500 and big win bets on Flightline. So I came out almost a grand ahead. These Breeders Cup races are the hardest to handicap because everybody in the field is good. So I am surprised I did this well.

    Like

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