According to Vegas oddsmakers and the chatter amongst football analysts, the current favorite to win the NFL MVP award this year is the Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Granted, Wilson has had a great season thus far. The Seahawks are 8-2 and Wilson looked good in prime time on Monday Night Football vs the San Francisco 49ers recently.
But what if I told you that Patrick Mahomes, the NFL’s reigning MVP, is a better quarterback this year than he was in 2018?
Since Mahomes missed 2 games due to injury, he is not going to be able to top 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season like he accomplished in 2018. However, when you review his statistics, nearly all of his numbers are better this season:
- Yards Per Game: 318.6 (2018) — 328.3 (2019)
- Yards Per Pass Attempt: 8.8 (2018) — 9.0 (2019)
- Completion Percentage: 66.0% (2018) – 66.3% (2019)
- Interception Percentage: 2.1% (2018) – 0.3% (2019)
- Quarterback Rating: 113.8 (2018) – 114.1 (2019)
The one statistic that is down this year for Mahomes is TD passes. Last year, he averaged 3.13 TD passes per game, 50 TDs in 16 games. This year, he has average 2.25 TD passes per game, 18 TDs in 8 games.
But Mahomes has taken better care of the ball this year and cut his interceptions way down. He currently has thrown just one interception.
Mahomes vs Wilson
I decided to take a closer look at how this might play out the rest of the way. I pro rated Patrick Mahomes’ and Russell Wilson’s key statistics for a full season. Note that I rounded up or down to the nearest whole number.
Mahomes – Passing Yards 4,596, 32 Passing TDs, 2 Interceptions, QB Rating 114.1
Wilson – Passing Yards 4,379, 37 Passing TDs, 3 Interceptions, QB Rating 114.9
So, if Patrick Mahomes can stay healthy the rest of the way, he could factor right back into the mix for another league MVP award. The key here might be if the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West division. If Wilson is not able guide the Seahawks to a division crown and if the Chiefs win the another AFC West division crown again as expected, this might swing votes towards Patrick Mahomes or another candidate. The Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is the second favorite currently.
Overall, I feel that the 2019 NFL MVP award will go to one of these five candidates: Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Waston, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. I think this will be an interesting race and something to keep an eye on the rest of the season.