2019 Belmont Stakes Preview – Updated

UPDATED: June 8th at 6:28 PM EST

Below are the entries, post-positions, jockey assignments and morning line odds for this Saturday’s 151st running of the Belmont Stakes.

Just like the Preakness Stakes, this race is wide-open with no Maximum Security, Country House or Omaha Beach in the field. It does, however, have the Preakness Stakes winner War of Will. Just note that since 1999, only four Preakness Stakes runners have won the Belmont Stakes (Point Given 2001, Afleet Alex 2005, American Pharoah 2015, and Justify 2018).

The Belmont Stakes – 1 1/2 Miles. Race #11 at Belmont Park. Post-time: 6:37 PM EST. Televised by NBC.

1) Joeva (30/1) – He’s coming off a win at Monmouth Park in the Long Branch Stakes. He’s a very deserved 30-1 having never raced further than 9 furlongs where he disqualified and relegated to 11th place in the Wood Memorial.

Career: 5 Starts 2-2-0-0   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>11th–>1st
Sire: Shanghai Bobby 
Trainer: Gregory Sacco
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 99 – 2019 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes 

2) Everfast (12/1) – The Dale Romans-trained colt was a longshot that surprised in the Preakness Stakes with a 2nd place finish. His form is improving so consider him for your exotics bets.

Career: 11 Starts 1-2-1-1   Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 9th–>5th–>2nd
Sire: Take Charge Indy 
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 94 – 2019 Preakness Stakes

3) Master Fencer (8/1) – The Japanese bred colt finished a surprising 6th in the sloppy Kentucky Derby. I feel that 8/1 is too short of odds if the Belmont is run on a dry fast track.

Career: 7 Starts 2-2-0-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 4th–>2nd–>6th
Sire: Just a Way
Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 95- 2019 Kentucky Derby

4) Tax (15/1) – The gelding was a consistent performer at Aqueduct,  with a third place finish in the Remsen Stakes, a win in the Withers Stakes and a second place finish in his last Derby prep the Wood Memorial. However, he finished a disappointing 14th in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps his issue was the wet, sloppy track.

Career: 6 Starts 2-2-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>14th
Sire: Arch 
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr (2016 Belmont Stakes Winning Jockey)
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 103 – 2018 Remsen Stakes

5) Bourbon War (12/1) – The Tapit colt finished 4th in the Florida Derby. His most impressive performance came in the Fountain of Youth Stakes where he unleashed a late charge to finish second. However, he never was a factor in the Preakness Stakes and didn’t put together any late run. If it weren’t for jockey Mike Smith being on board this time, I wouldn’t even think of using him in any exotic bets.

Career: 6 Starts 2-1-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>4th->8th
Sire: Tapit 
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Mike Smith (2010, 2013 & 2018 Belmont Stakes Winning Jockey)
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 96 – 2018 Remsen Stakes

6) Spinoff (15/1) – The Todd Pletcher’s trainee had raced at four different tracks and never finished below third before the Kentucky Derby. However, he bombed an 18th place finish in the Run for the Roses. Perhaps he didn’t like the sloppy conditions but I had concerns even before the Derby how he will like the added distance of 10 furlongs.

Career: 5 Starts 2-1-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>2nd–>18th
Sire: Hard Spun (Finished 4th in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 102 – 2019 Louisiana Derby 

7) Sir Winston (12/1) – The Peter Pan Stakes Runner-Up. He is a deep closer who really displayed excellent closing speed in the Peter Pan. This is one horse to include in all your Superfecta bets. For those who prefer Beyer Speed Figures over Brisnet, Sir Winston is the only horse in this field whose produced a triple digit Beyer (100).

Career: 9 Starts 2-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 5th–>7th–>2nd
Sire: Awesome Again 
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Joel Rosario (2014 Belmont Stakes Winning Jockey)
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 101 – 2019 Peter Pan Stakes

8) Intrepid Heart (10/1) – Another Todd Pletcher-trainee. He finished 3rd in the Peter Pan Stakes. He is the least experienced colt in this field with just three career starts but has a great pedigree and a trainer and jockey who have won the Belmont Stakes multiple times.

Career: 3 Starts 2-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st–>3rd
Sire:  Tapit 
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (2007, 2013 & 2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Trainer)
Jockey: John Velasquez (2007 & 2012 Belmont Stakes Winning Jockey)
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 96 – 2019 Peter Pan Stakes 

9) War of Will (2/1) – The Preakness Stakes winner. He originally started off as a turf horse with little success before switching to dirt.  As I noted earlier, since 1999, only four Preakness Stakes runners have won the Belmont Stakes.

Career: 10 Starts 4-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1
Last 3 starts: 9th–>7th–>1st
Sire: War Front 
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 96 – 2019 Risen Star Stakes

10) Tacitus (9/5) – The Wood Memorial winner. A progeny of Tapit, he should take to the added distance. I generally feel that he’ll win a big stakes race somewhere down the line. So I am not surprised he was made the Morning Line favorite for the Belmont.

Career: 5 Starts 3-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>1st->3rd
Sire: Tapit 
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Jose Ortiz (2017 Belmont Stakes Winning Jockey)
Career Best Brisnet Speed Figure: 103 – 2019 Wood Memorial Stakes

Handicapping Advice

So here is what I uncovered from the last seven Belmont Stakes winners from Brisnet Past Performances:

  • All seven had produced a 100 or better Brisnet Speed figure during their 3-year-old campaign. Only four horses in this year’s Belmont Stakes field that meet this criteria: Tax, Tacitus, Sir Winston and Spinoff.
  • All seven winners had a Brisnet Prime Power rating over 140. The only horses who meet this criteria are: Tax, Tacitus, War of Will and Spinoff.

As I noted earlier, Preakness Stakes runners rarely win the Belmont Stakes and especially when they don’t have at least two workouts since their last race. For this reason, I do not like War of Will.

From the above analytics, I have narrowed down the potential 2019 Belmont Stakes winner to three colts: Tacitus, Tax and Spinoff. I have concerns whether Spinoff likes distances greater than 9 furlongs. So, this narrows my winner down to Tacitus and Tax.

Update: I like Tacitus and Sir Winston battling it out for the win with Tax rounding out the Trifecta. Another horse I’d throw into your Superfecta is Spinoff. Todd Pletcher seems to always produce a surprising performance in the Belmont Stakes with a horse that flies under the radar. Perhaps its Intrepid Heart so throw him in too.

Right now, Tacitus’ odds have ranged from 5/2 to 2/1. Sir Winston’s odds have ranged from 7/1 to 8/1. I am putting $75 on Tacitus to win and $25 on Sir Winston to win. Based upon 2/1 odds for Tacitus and 8/1 odds on Sir Winston, this $100 bet will pay back $225 if either win.

I am doing one 10 cent Superfecta 7,10 over 4,6,7,10 over 4,6,7,8,10 over 4,6,7,8,9 that costs $5.

I am also doing a $3 Exacta 7,10 over 4,7,10 that costs $12. And a 50 cent Trifecta 7,10 over 4,7,10 over 4,7,10 that costs $2.

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2 comments

    • Thanks Brandon. I am glad that I could help. I was high on Sir Winston after I calculated that he ran the last 3 furlongs in the Peter Pan Stakes in 35.45. That was flying! I think Mark Casse seemed a bit disappointed that his other entry War of Will didn’t win. But he has a great colt in Sir Winston.

      Like

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