With Tiz the Law‘s impressive performance in the Belmont Stakes yesterday, I am beginning to think that we may have the 14th Triple Crown champion on our hands. With all the injuries to horses like Charlatan, Nadal and Maxfield, who’s going to beat him now?
And this year’s Triple Crown won’t be the grueling three race juggernaut in a 5 week span like it was in the past. The schedule now provides plenty of time to rest between each crown jewel event.
If Tiz the Law doesn’t race again between now and the Kentucky Derby on September 5th, he will have a 11 week layoff. He looked sharp in the Belmont Stakes after a 12 week layoff. He produced a really nice final 3-furlong time which I calculated to be 36.35 seconds and 100 Beyer Speed Figure.
Tiz the Law has demonstrated that he has the tactical speed necessary to win in a large field like the Kentucky Derby. The only thing that he will be up against is the unknown late bloomer that could emerge this fall. I’ll take my chances that Tiz the Law gets even faster by Derby time.
Tiz the Law’s trainer Barclay Tagg came close to winning a Triple Crown with Funny Cide in 2003 as he won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and came in third in the Belmont Stakes that year.
And history appears to be on Tiz the Law’s side. Triple Crown champions come in groups of three to four in a 5 to 7 year span:
- 1930 Gallant Fox, 1935 Omaha, 1937 War Admiral
- 1941 Whirlaway, 1943 Count Fleet, 1946 Assault, 1948 Citation
- 1973 Secretariat, 1977 Seattle Slew, 1978 Affirmed
- 2015 American Pharoah, 2018 Justify, ?
Looking at these patterns, we should get another Triple Crown champion this year or 2022 as the third Triple Crown Champion came five years or seven years after the first in the series.
2020 has been a weird year due to the Coronavirus pandemic, so it would only be fitting to have a Triple Crown champion with a juggled order of Triple Crown events. But it wouldn’t be the first time this happened as Gallant Fox became the 2nd Triple Crown champion in 1930 with his Preakness Stakes win being the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Overall, having another Triple Crown threat to watch this fall would help make this woeful year a more palatable. I sincerely hope it happens and I don’t think there should be an asterisk next to Tiz the Law’s name if he pulls off the feat. It’s wouldn’t be his fault that track owners postponed races. And with the way he ran yesterday, I think he would have won the Belmont Stakes at the traditional 12 furlong distance.
Cox Sportsnet 
Dominant performance, very fun to watch. Will have a chance to take a Travers/KD double. Strange year.
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Tiz the Law surprised me. He’s gotten a lot faster than he was in the Florida Derby where he barely broke 38 seconds in the last 3 furlongs of that race. Tap it to Win was right where I expected him to be entering the stretch but he petered out. Not sure why other than he is a smaller horse and probably needs 4 weeks between races. At any rate, that was Tap it to Win’s best chance of winning a crown jewel event. I don’t think he will take to added distance. I will watch the Blue Grass Stakes and the Indiana and Ohio Derbies to see if there is anybody who might be able to give Tiz the Law a run for his money but I think he is now the class that remains left in this crop.
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Agreed, Tap was tapped out. Looked good for most of the race, but you could see right before the stretch there was no shot.
Honor AP may continue getting stronger.
Keep looking!
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Greek, I will be watching for sure. But Tiz the Law has recaptured my imagination. If you remember, I called American Pharoah and Justify’s Triple Crown wins. I even booked my Belmont Stakes trip before the Preakness Stakes to see Justify’s Triple Crown won live.
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Michael,
I certainly do remember your calls! Sure wish I had been at Belmont that day. Gave me chills just watching on TV.
I also like the story behind Tiz, and the trainer. Feel-good story for once…
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