Why you shouldn’t bet on the Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl 54

Here are the lastest odds to win Super Bowl 54 updated December 16th 2019 from Bovada:

  • Baltimore Ravens +225 – 2.25/1 – Implied Probability = 30.8%
  • New England Patriots +600 – 6/1 – Implied Probability = 14.3%
  • New Orleans Saints +600 – 6/1 – Implied Probability = 14.3%
  • San Francisco 49ers +700 – 7/1 – Implied Probability = 12.5%
  • Kansas City Chiefs +750 – 7.5/1 – Implied Probability = 11.8%
  • Seattle Seahawks +850 – 8.5/1 – Implied Probability = 10.5%
  • Green Bay Packers +1200 – 12/1 – Implied Probability = 7.7%

The Baltimore Ravens have been the favorite to win Super Bowl 54 for several weeks now. Admittedly, the Ravens are the hottest team in the NFL and sport the league’s best record at 12-2. But, I don’t think you shouldn’t bet them to win the Super Bowl this year. Why? Lamar Jackson’s youth and inexperience.

If Jackson gets the Baltimore Ravens to Super Bowl 54 he will be 23 years old and 27 days, the youngest quarterback to ever start a Super Bowl. The youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl was Dan Marino at 23 years and 127 days. The youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Ben Roethlisberger at 23 years and 340 days. If Lamar Jackson starts the final two regular season games and two games in the AFC playoffs, he will have just 25 career NFL starts entering Super Bowl 54.

Going back through history and looking at the last 53 Super Bowls, there have been only six quarterbacks younger than age 25 that started a Super Bowl:

  • Dan Marino – 23 – Lost Super Bowl 19 – 28 previous NFL starts
  • Ben Roethlisberger – 23 – Won Super Bowl 40 – 30 previous NFL starts
  • David Woodley – 23 – Lost Super Bowl 17 – 30 previous NFL starts
  • Jared Goff – 24 – Lost Super Bowl 53 – 41 previous NFL starts
  • Tom Brady – 24 – Won Super Bowl 36 – 16 previous NFL starts
  • Drew Bledsoe – 24 – Lost Super Bowl 31 – 62 previous NFL starts

In summary, quarterbacks younger than age 25 making their first start in a Super Bowl have a combined 2-4 record. The only quarterback in this group that won the Super Bowl but hadn’t started and won a playoff game the previous season was Tom Brady. Brady had no previous playoff experience when he won his first Super Bowl ring. Ben Roethlisberger went 1-1 in the playoffs the season before he won Super Bowl 23.

Lamar Jackson lost his first and only playoff start of his career last season at home vs the Los Angeles Chargers. Out of curiosity, if Patrick Mahomes can lead the Kansas City Chiefs to the Super Bowl this year, he would also fit into this category at age 24 and be the 5th youngest to start a Super Bowl. Mahomes does have a playoff win under his belt already as he went 1-1 in last year’s NFL playoffs.

Overall, while the Baltimore Ravens are the current Super Bowl favorite and Lamar Jackson will likely be this year’s NFL MVP, I think it is highly unlikely that the Baltimore Ravens will win Super Bowl 54. History is just not on the young quarterback’s side. If the Kansas City Chiefs wind up with the #4 seed, Jackson would likely have to beat two really good teams (Kansas City and New England) with great head coaches and great quarterbacks who have won a playoff game before just to reach the Super Bowl.

Then, if the New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks or Green Bay Packers make into the Super Bowl as the NFC representative, Jackson would have to outduel a previous Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Drew Brees, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Brees and Rodgers were also Super Bowl MVP the year they won.

Honestly, I just don’t see that happening.

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